Oklahoma: The Ultimate Darkhorse with a Heisman Hopeful at the Helm
I have the Oklahoma Sooners at No. 11 in my preseason Top 25, and they are my favorite pick for a darkhorse College Football Playoff team. After a frustrating 6-7 season where the offense hit rock bottom, head coach Brent Venables has engineered a massive overhaul, bringing in an elite offensive coordinator and my top pick for the Heisman Trophy, quarterback John Mateer. Paired with a defense that is already championship-caliber, the Sooners have the talent and scheme to overcome the nation’s toughest schedule and make a surprise run to the playoff.
2024: A Season of Extremes
Last season was a paradox. The 6-7 record, capped by a bowl loss to Navy, represented a low point for a program with such high standards. The offense was the worst in decades. And yet, this same team showed its immense potential in stunning victories over Iron Bowl rivals Auburn and Alabama, the latter a dominant 24-3 win over a playoff hopeful.
Those games proved that Venables had built a championship-level defense. The problem was an offense that couldn’t keep up. That imbalance led to a dramatic and necessary offseason reset.
Offense: The Air Raid and a Heisman Candidate Arrive
The turnaround begins with the hiring of offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, a rising star who has directed some of the most explosive Air Raid attacks in the country. He brings with him the perfect quarterback to run the system in Washington State transfer John Mateer. Mateer’s playing style—a towel and headband-wearing gunslinger—has already drawn comparisons to Baker Mayfield, and his production is off the charts. Last season, he threw for over 3,100 yards and 29 touchdowns while adding an incredible 826 yards and 15 more scores on the ground. He is a true dual-threat playmaker and the engine that can make this offense elite.
Mateer won’t be doing it alone. The staff added another headliner in All-Pac-12 running back Jaydn Ott from Cal, one of the top rushers in the transfer portal. While the receiver room is being rebuilt after a disastrous run of injuries, it returns Deion Burks as a reliable slot option and will be infused with new talent. The offensive line, which struggled mightily last year, is coached by the legendary Bill Bedenbaugh and will benefit greatly from Arbuckle’s scheme, which relies on quick passes to mitigate pressure.
Defense: The Championship Foundation
This is Brent Venables’ calling card. While the offense was broken, the defense was elite, finishing in the top 15 of my opponent-adjusted metrics for the second straight year. This unit is the reason Oklahoma can compete with anyone in the country.
The defense returns its heart and soul in linebacker Kip Lewis, whose two pick-sixes against Alabama and Auburn made him a program hero. He is joined by a secondary anchored by the talented Bowen brothers, Eli and Peyton. The staff also added a crucial piece in two-time All-Big 12 transfer Kendal Daniels (Oklahoma State), a versatile playmaker who can play both linebacker and the do-it-all “Cheetah” position. This is a top-10 unit with the talent and scheme to shut down the best offenses in the SEC.
The Schedule and the Path
Oklahoma was handed the most difficult schedule in the nation, with seven games against my preseason Top 25: Texas, Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Ole Miss, Auburn, and Tennessee. It’s a murderer’s row that would break most teams. But for a darkhorse, it’s an opportunity. If the Sooners can navigate this gauntlet and emerge with nine or ten wins, their resume will be undeniable to the playoff committee.
Why I’m So Confident
Here’s why Oklahoma is my favorite darkhorse to make the College Football Playoff:
- A legitimate Heisman contender in quarterback John Mateer.
- An elite, championship-proven defense under Brent Venables.
- A massive offensive upgrade with the arrival of Ben Arbuckle.
- High-impact transfers who are proven stars at the Power 4 level.
This is a high-risk, high-reward pick, but the pieces are in place. At No. 11 in my preseason rankings, Oklahoma has the defense, the scheme, and the superstar quarterback to shock the country and make a deep playoff run.
