Penn State at No. 1: Why the 2025 Favorite is Built to Finish the Job
Penn State is my pick to win the Big Ten and the National Championship and that is why they start the season at #1 in my top 25. The case is straightforward: a roster packed with returning production on offense, elite trench play, two top-tier coordinators, and a schedule that gives them control of the playoff path. After a 13-win season and a semifinal that slipped away in the final seconds, 2025 sets up as James Franklin’s decisive moment.
What 2024 Proved
Penn State finally cleared the “get to December” hurdle. Despite a one-score loss to Ohio State, they won every other regular-season game, took a thriller at USC in overtime, and finished off Minnesota with multiple fourth-down conversions. They fell to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, then dominated SMU in a home playoff (two pick-sixes), shut down Boise State and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty in the quarterfinals, and led most of the semifinal before late miscues and a last-second interception ended it. Thirteen wins set a program record and delivered Franklin’s first AP top-5 finish, with the three losses coming to teams ranked No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3, each within one score. The offseason moves make clear they’re “all-in” to close the final gap.
Offense: Veteran star power and real explosiveness
- Quarterback: Drew Allar bypassed the NFL and returns as a legitimate Heisman candidate. Over two seasons he has thrown 49 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. The next step is obvious: more consistent accuracy, hitting the layups, and wringing more out of the RPO menu.
- Backfield: Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton became the first 1,000-yard duo in program history and both returned. They’re within range of the school rushing record and will push each other into November.
- Scheme jump: Year 1 under OC Andy Kotelnicki worked. In opponent-adjusted per-play numbers, the offense finished No. 8 overall and No. 9 in passing, and led the nation in 10-yard rushes. Explosive rush improved from No. 85 to No. 39 and explosive pass from No. 122 to No. 45 from 2023 to 2024.
- Trenches: The line flipped from liability to strength under Phil Trautwein: No. 10 in OL run push and No. 29 in pass protection, with four All-Big Ten returners. Sal Wormley is the lone departure; the two-deep is fortified by former five-stars Nolan Rucci and J’Ven Williams alongside Drew Shelton, Olumuyiwa “Vega” Ioane, Nick Dawkins, and Anthony Donkoh.
- Pass catchers: The semifinal exposed the receiver room when wideouts were held without a catch, a rarity across FBS in 2024. The room was rebuilt: USC’s Kyron Hudson brings physicality, Troy speedster Devonte Ross adds juice, and Syracuse starter Trebor Peña arrived after spring. Former top-500 Kaden Saunders is a key swing piece in the slot. Tight end Tyler Warren, the 2024 Mackey Award winner with 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight scores, departed, but Khalil Dinkins plus blue-chippers Luke Reynolds and five-star Andrew Olesh headline the next wave.
Bottom line on offense: Returning production is top-10 nationally, the quarterback is seasoned, the backs are elite, and the line is one of the nation’s best. The only mandate is to translate the revamped receiver talent into consistent separation and finish drives against playoff defenses.
Defense: Elite hire, proven backbone, targeted reload
- Coordinator: Franklin made the splash move of the carousel, hiring Jim Knowles away from Ohio State days after their national title. Knowles’ four-man front, mixed coverages, and in-game adjustments give Penn State one of the smartest staffs in the sport.
- 2024 baseline: Opponent-adjusted per-play defense ranked No. 3 overall, No. 7 vs the run and No. 6 vs the pass. Traditional metrics were strong too: 16.5 points per game allowed (No. 8) and 295 yards per game (No. 7).
- Front seven: Ten defenders earned All-Big Ten last season, with half returning. There is a headline loss with All-American edge Abdul Carter going No. 3 in the draft, but Dani Dennis-Sutton is poised for an All-America year and Zane Durant may be one of Franklin’s best interior linemen. Zuriah Fisher is projected to start at the other end. At linebacker, Tony Rojas and Dominic DeLuca return, joined by LaVar Arrington II and post-spring addition Amare Campbell.
- Secondary: Press-man volume went up and the corners met the challenge. All-Big Ten CB AJ Harris and S Zakee Wheatley return, King Mack is back from Alabama, and Elliot Washington emerged as a winter-workout standout. Wheatley left last postseason as Fiesta Bowl MVP.
Bottom line on defense: This is a reload, not a rebuild. Knowles inherits top-10 efficiency with established stars and credible depth.
Numbers that back up No. 1
- Opponent-adjusted per-play: Offense No. 8, defense No. 3. That profile is championship-grade.
- Quarterback efficiency: 155 team QB rating (No. 10), despite a pedestrian raw passing-yards rank, signals quality over volume.
- Line play: Top-10 run push and top-30 pass protection are the bedrock for January football.
The path
The slate opens with Nevada, FIU, and Villanova before a Big Ten gauntlet that features Oregon, a road trip to UCLA, November at Ohio State, and late games with Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rutgers. With two byes spaced around the mid-season crunch, the calendar offers recovery windows for a deep run.
Verdict
The profile is complete. Veteran five-star quarterback. The best two-back tandem in program history. An offensive line that projects as one of the nation’s best. A defense that already graded top-three per play, now guided by a coordinator whose track record is turning strong units into elite ones. I’ll close the evaluation bluntly: Penn State is the pick to win the Big Ten and the National Title.
If they clean up the red-zone and downfield layups that decided last year’s semifinal, No. 1 in August can become No. 1 in January. hunted. And if they play to their potential, they’ll still be sitting at No. 1 when the confetti falls in January.
